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Expectation and reality game - glass is stronger in recent months

  • Author:Fanyu
  • Source:Www.glass.com.cn
  • Release on:2018-07-13
Since late June, the price of glass has fluctuated in a small degree after adjustment. However, the trend of the contract in the near and far months has slightly diverged. Among them, the increase in the contract period of 1809 was 4.3% in the recent month, while the contract of the far month 1901 was only 1.7%. At present, the closing price of the futures is mainly due to the market's expectation of the peak season in the third quarter, and the industry inventory has not continued to accumulate in the off-season, which has boosted market confidence. The 1809 contract in the flat state was driven by the expected increase in spot price in the peak season. And the market started ahead of time, but the market is still cautious about the 1901 contract in the distant month. The uncertainty faced by the real estate side and the trend of increasing supply have made the long-term supply and demand situation of the glass not optimistic, so its trend is obviously weaker than the near-month contract. The spread between the two has also increased from 58 yuan to 91 yuan.

The current spot market is still in the game phase of anticipation and reality. In order to boost market confidence, production companies have successively held regional coordination meetings, and the willingness to price is more obvious. However, the impact in the off-season is still continuing. The recent continuous rainfall and high temperature weather have made the terminal demand weaker. The processing enterprise orders have a downward trend. The purchase of the original film is relatively cautious. The upstream manufacturers actually have normal shipments, while the industry inventory has fallen more. For some large factories to deal with rain glass. Overall, sales pressure is still relatively large, some manufacturers are not motivated to raise prices after the meeting, mostly to reduce inventory, the recovery of market confidence still needs actual demand to achieve.
flat glass

In the short term,glassThere is still room for manoeuvre in the contradiction between supply and demand. In particular, the active construction of the sheds in the first half of the year and the accelerated construction progress brought by the accelerated launch of the housing enterprises have all made it possible to realize the peak season in the second half of the year. However, in the long run, the tight capital problem of housing enterprises under “tight credit” will become more and more serious. The construction period of real estate will become the norm, and with the passage of time, the new construction will also have a downward trend, so the transmission of completion will be further weakened. . Therefore, the general trend of seeing the decline in demand for glass will continue, and it is expected to be short-term and optimistic for a long time. On the supply side, if the profit maintains the current level, the increase in production capacity will continue, and the pressure on the supply side will gradually increase in the long run.

In the market outlook, before the actual demand in the peak season, if there is no new disturbance factor, the 1809 contract will remain at a high level, which can be low. However, the 1901 contract, due to the weakening demand, and the enthusiasm of the production line after high profit Higher, it faces a certain downward pressure.