Is there still a glass off-season market?
Fanyu Www.glass.com.cn 2018-06-28 14:46:37
|At present, the inventory of traders and processing companies is at a low level. The increase in manufacturers' prices has stimulated the market to make up the library, but the supply of glass under the pattern of strong demand and weak supply is difficult to continue to rise.
From a fundamental point of view, there is no simultaneous demand force in the context of supply-side reforms. Without mandatory intervention in policies, production capacity is expected to drop sharply under the general higher profit level in the industry, while the demand for downstream industries is in severe real estate. It is also difficult for explosive growth to occur under policy control. Therefore, the problem of structural oversupply in the glass industry cannot be effectively solved for a short period of time, and glass prices are difficult to achieve stable growth.
With the frequent introduction of environmental protection policies, the production costs of glass have also been gradually increased. After the year, the overall market price of glass spot is high and downstream demand has generally declined. As a result, manufacturers adjust glass prices one after another, and industry profits quickly fall after the year.
At present, the profit margin of coal-made glass in the Shahe region has dropped from about 40% in the high period to about 17.39%. The current profit margin is still at a medium-high level, and under the guidance of this higher profit rate, the production capacity is expected to drop sharply. Small, and even later there will be a gradual production line production, short-term supply pressure is difficult to reduce.
During the busy farming season and the rainy season, the pressure from factory shipments is still relatively large during the lean season. Coupled with the tightening of policies, the demand for long-term building materials is unlikely to grow explosively.glassThe fundamentals still tend to be weak. It is expected that the glass will experience relatively long-term shocks and declines. During this period, the market may be oversold or the price will be oversold. Profit shrinkage will cause capacity contraction, and seasonal demand will be released repeatedly, but the downward trend will not be easily changed.
At the beginning of the year, the inventory growth of mainstream manufacturers in the Shahe region hit a high point in recent years. At the time, the combined inventory of manufacturers and traders was nearly 50% higher than that of 2017, and the statistics market orders fell by nearly 30% compared with last year after the resumption of the downstream market. Confidence has been severely hit. Glass spot futures prices have fallen sharply. Under the market's pessimistic sentiment, traders and processing companies have lower intentions of stocking and inventory has continued to operate at low levels. The recent slight increase in prices of glass manufacturers has stabilized market confidence. Under the guidance of the psychological factors of buying up or not buying, traders and processing companies started to make up the central bank, and thus the production company's outbound conditions improved, and the overall inventory also became apparent. However, this round of supplementation is in fact the process of transfer of production companies. With the arrival of the busy farming season and the rainy season, orders for processing companies will gradually decrease. It is difficult to maintain the current production and sales rate after the completion of the restocking by traders and processing companies. The inventory of production companies will accumulate again.