It is expected that the glass price increase momentum will weaken

At the end of the year, the downward pressure on the economy increased and global macroeconomic policies began to adjust. The Fed has recently released a more "doves" signal, the rate hike is slowing down, and the plan of shrinking plans is likely to change, which will make China's monetary policy have more room for growth. In the past two months, the policy has been frequently blown, and the RRR cut has been expected. As the central bank will cut the 1% deposit reserve ratio twice in January, the monetary easing is expected to fall. For glass, monetary easing is good for its demand, but since December last year, the adjustment of real estate policies across the country has had a greater impact on glass demand. In 2018, restrictions on purchases and restrictions on sales have had a major impact on real estate sales. Housing companies are expected to be pessimistic, and the growth rate of completion and serious deviations from new construction have led to a downturn in glass demand throughout the year. If the real estate demand side policy is adjusted, it will benefit the completion of the house and driveglassDemand is picking up, and monetary policy relaxation will ease the tightness of housing enterprises, and some of the backlog of construction during the construction phase is expected to enter the completion period. With the implementation of the RRR drop, the loosening of the policy has become an established fact, but the effect remains to be discussed. Especially under the positioning of “staying and not speculating” and the marginal weakening of the influence of the shed, it will weaken the effect of real estate on glass demand. . In the short-term, the impact of the off-season continued to intensify. Due to the lack of financial pressure, production companies continued to sell at a very high price. Since November last year, there have been more cold repair production lines to ease supply pressure. However, the industry's inventory continued to increase, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand is still accumulating. The middle and downstream stocks are cautious. After the policy is expected to fall, the glass price is expected to continue to rise. The glass price will be lowered before the Spring Festival to realize the transfer of stocks. From the perspective of the disk, the current daily and weekly K-line are all facing 120 moving averages. It is difficult to break through. It is recommended to operate at a high level.