With the end of New Year's Day, the number of downstream processing orders has declined. Under the pattern that the contradiction between supply and demand in the medium and long term is difficult to reconcile, it is difficult to achieve a big breakthrough in glass price performance. Therefore, we are relatively pessimistic about the later trend, namely 2019 glass. The spot market may be dominated by the oscillating down market. The phased rebound mainly depends on the cold repair of the expired production line and the relaxation of policies. From the perspective of the recent futures market, the current disk price is still heavily discounted to the spot price. Even if the manufacturer releases the price reduction policy for the winter promotion after the warehouse is slowed down, it is expected that the spot price will still be higher than the disk price after the price reduction, so the short-term price is still With subsidized water kinetic energy.
Fundamental: Supply and demand contradictions intensify 2019 glass prices or will weaken
After the New Year holidaysglassThe overall trend of the spot market is general. The production enterprises should try their best to increase the outbound and returning cages, and the market confidence will not change much. The recent temperature changes in East China and Central China have affected the market demand in some regions and road transportation, which has affected the overall outbound of production enterprises. With the gradual end of the rushing orders in the northern region, the terminal market demand and the speed at which traders purchase glass are also gradually weakening, resulting in a steady increase in the inventory of the overall manufacturers, which is even greater than the same period last year. However, this is a normal situation in the off-season. At the same time, due to the economic benefits of the production enterprises in recent years, the current situation has not increased the willingness to withdraw from the warehouse due to financial pressure in the short term.
At the end of last year, due to temporary environmental inspections, 9 production lines in the Shahe area, such as unapproved construction, approval or non-compliance with environmental protection discharge permits, have all been shut down, affecting daily production of about 5,800 tons/day. It accounted for 3.8% of the total operating capacity of the country. At that time, the shrinkage of the supply side was one of the main reasons for the price increase in the early part of the year. Then, with the high profit of the industry, the production capacity was gradually restored, and some of the expired production lines were still profitable due to industry profits. The increase in the cost of superimposed cold repair also chose to adhere to production, which led to the problem of high production capacity in the industry running through the whole 2018. Until the profit at the end of the year was greatly damaged, the manufacturers gradually carried out the cold repair plan for the expired production line. Therefore, the high supply in 2018 suppressed the upper space of the glass price during the year without any significant boost on the demand side. The intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand also created the downward trend of the 2018 glass price.
Recent market outlook
1. Vendor inventory is relatively low, and demand at the end of the year boosts market confidence;
2. The price of the plate is greatly discounted to the spot price. In the short term, there is still subsidized water kinetic energy.
1. The property policy is tightening, and the number of downstream orders in 2018 has dropped by 30%, and 2019 is expected to continue to fall;
2. Although the long-term production capacity is lower than expected, the problem of overcapacity in the short and medium term is difficult to solve effectively, and the contradiction between supply and demand will dominate the price decline;
3. Winter orders have gradually declined, and glass stocks will accumulate rapidly under high production capacity. The overall supply will be loose after the year.
to sum up:
The current spot market price is close to the top area before the introduction of the winter storage policy. With the successive shutdowns of downstream demand and the rapid increase of inventory, the high price is difficult to sustain in the long run. In the futures market, the price of the 05 contract is still lower than the expected price of the winter storage. In the short term, there is still subsidized water kinetic energy. The operation is recommended to wait and see for a short time. Waiting for the price to rise above the winter storage price, the medium and long-term empty orders can be placed. for reference only.