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Glass enters the off-season mid-season - weak supply and demand tends to weaken

  • Author:Fanyu
  • Source:Www.glass.com.cn
  • Release on:2018-06-07
From the point of view, Shahe and the surrounding glass market will be under the influence of farmers during this week, and the impact of farmers will probably last for about 10 days. The impact of the busy farming on the glass industry is mainly reflected in the production progress of glass processing plants and the glass transportation industry. It is the southern rainy season that synchronizes with the northern farmers, and it will also enter the rainy season after the northern farmers are busy. The impact of the rainy season on the glass industry is mainly the storage and transportation of glass. In rainy and cloudy weather, glass transportation and storage are vulnerable to mildew. In general, the rainy season of processing plants and traders is mainly to reduce inventory and speed up inventory flow operations. The rainy season also has a certain impact on the construction of the main demand for glass. The north and south rainy seasons are likely to remain in June-August, so that they form the second low season of the year. In August, due to the fact that traders had concentrated their repositories based on the high probability of gold prices rising during the peak season of the “Jin nine silver” season, the price of glass upstream prices was significantly raised before the Jin Jiuyin 10th. This situation is more apparent in the Shahe glass market, mainly due to the high degree of involvement of Shahe Glass in the sales of traders.
In the past two years, due to the good relationship between supply and demand, glass manufacturers did not form large-scale inventory during the rainy season, resulting in a weak off-season in the glass market. So how will the trend of the glass market in the rainy season develop this year?
float glass
TheCapacity supply
Since the beginning of this year, the production capacity of the glass industry has steadily increased. As the glass industry has a certain profit, cold repairs are delayed as much as possible, and production conditions must be resumed before the peak season. In the short term, it plans to restart the production line including Nanning's relocation and 500 tons of Fuxi Benxi Line. Shengzhou Banner 1000 tons. Wuhan Changli Honghu Second Line 1200 tons. Yibin Wuliangye plans to ignite two lines. Qinhuangdao Yaohua 560 tons. Hubei Minghong 400 tons. Nanning 900 tons of Nanning, Guangxi Province has already ignited on May 18. In the first half to the first half of the year, four production lines reduced the capacity by 1,320 tons, and six lines increased production by 2,430 tons. Prior to the “Jin 9 Silver 10”, the glass production capacity will continue to increase under the influence of no external policies.
TheDownstream demand
Since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as the impact of environmental protection factors and cooling of the real estate market, the area of ​​glass demand for major building projects has continued to decline, and the demand for glass has decreased year-on-year. In May, with the progress of construction projects, the demand for glass for construction has been released to a certain extent. The current demand for glass is at the mid-to-upper level in the first half of the year. In the period of June-August, the demand side of glass is under the influence of many unfavorable factors such as the rainy season and high temperature, and it will maintain its current level at a high probability. In the short term, there are no clear positive factors in the glass demand side to stimulate the downstream market to purchase glass. In the period from June to August before the peak season of gold, silver and silver, the upstream glass market generally maintains a weak and steady flow rate.
TheInventory pressure
At the end of last month, under the stimulation of the East China North China Conference, downstream traders and processing plants with low inventory levels performed a round of make-up operations. The inventory of Shahe manufacturers' inventory decreased by 1.6 million weight boxes, and inventory pressure eased significantly. At present, Shahe manufacturers still keep more than 8 million weights of original inventory, superimposed Shahe social inventory of more than 10 million weight boxes. At present, Shahe's factory inventory is still more than 50% higher than last year, and inventory pressure still exists in real terms. In addition, the Shahe factory inventory is mainly concentrated in some manufacturers of more production lines, inventory products mainly in large plates. Some small factories with flexible pricing are low in stocks. This biased inventory structure will prompt large companies to rush to clear their old products during the rainy season.
Glass observes that Shahe's factory inventory does not fall below 5 million weight boxes, and Shahe market price lacks continued upward power. In the rainy season of June-July,glassThe contradiction between capacity and demand will continue to increase. After the glass manufacturers stabilized and rebounded at the end of last month, the willingness of price increases was strong. With a number of stalemate factors, the glass prices in the rainy season will be weak and stable. Do not rule out that individual manufacturers take the initiative to adjust to stimulate the market, but the primary task of the manufacturers is still to increase the outflow of inventory to remove inventory pressure. The overall price level oscillates weakly and the prices of some mainstream products may decline slightly. At the end of the rainy season, the glass price will rise slightly in the current supply and demand fundamentals, and the traditional gold nine silver and ten-billion XI will still be available.